Thursday, September 27, 2012

NFL Week 4: It's an art to pick games this perfectly...

Last week, we hit the sweet spot.  That's right, a perfect "Even Steven" of 8-8.  Can we continue this kind of perfection?  God willing...

On to the games...

Browns (+12) v. RAVENS

Ahh...the Art Modell Memorial Game. If the football Gods have any sense of karmic justice, they would let the Browns shock the world.  However, your gods won't save you this game, Browns fans.

BTPC pick: Ravens laying the 12.

Pats (-4) v. BILLS

Pats have lost 2 in a row.  Bills have lost two RBs in a row. We'll take UGG's model, Tom Brady...

BTPC pick: Pats laying the 4.

Lions (-4) v. VIKINGS

Vikings are game.  Detroit may have finally found a RB.  But they still have no defense.

BTPC pick: Vikings getting 4.

Panthers (+7) v. FALCONS

Not sure the Panthers will beat the Falcons, but 7 is a big cover for a team that can't run the ball worth a damn.

BTPC pick: Panther's getting 7.

49ers (-4.5) v. JETS

Here's the deal, the Jets stunk WITH Revis on the field Sunday.  Miami should have won that game in regulation, then should have definitely won it in OT.  Rex Ryan is such a joke.  He made Clyde Gates (former Dolphin) one of his captains for OT, to try to tweak Miami.  Problem is, Gates ran a HORRIBLE route to start the game, resulting in a INT.  Way to send a message to your team, Coach.  And Sparano looked like a moron beating his chest when the Jets took the lead in regulation.  The fact they should have lost, leaving Sparano with Egg on his face would have been no surprise at karma for Miami fans.  Meanwhile, Harbaugh's boys laid a stinker last week in a game they should have dominated.  In this one, I'll take the team with the better coach who didn't suffer a season-ending injury to their superman player.

BTPC pick: 49ers laying the 4.5

Chargers (-1.5) v. CHIEFS

Crennel v. Turner! Two fan bases who know they're never winning anything with these two retreads as Head Coach.  At some point, Matt Cassel's receivers are simply gonna walk out and refuse to run routes over the middle with the way he has laid them out.  Or one of them will die.  One of these two things will happen.

BTPC pick: Chargers laying 1.5

Titans (+12) v. TEXANS

The team with the QB who lost part of his ear last week is giving almost 2 TDs?  Really?

BTPC pick: Titans getting 12

RAMS (+3) v. Seahawks

Seattle is not at home and the football gods will have to right the scales.  Look for St. Louis to get every call in this one.

BTPC pick: UPSET SPECIAL: Rams getting 3

Dolphins (+5) v. CARDS

Miami should be 2-1 with rookie QB Ryan Tannehill.  The Sportsguy has just been killing THill, saying how we know he's not good.  We think that's crazy.  While not looking like RGIII or Luck, THill has had his moments and has yet to look overwhelmed.  Hell, Sportsguy keeps wondering why Miami isn't playing Matt Moore.  Uh...b/c they aren't winning a SuperBowl with Moore as the starter.  Any wins are gravy for Joe Philbin this year.  He just needs to see his young'ns progress.  Meanwhile, Arizona's defense is real.

BTPC pick: Cards laying the 5.

Raiders (+7) v. BRONCOS

Man...Peyton Manning's arm is a noodle now.  Seriously, he cannot go deep or throw the 10, 15 yard outs with velocity.  Teams are starting to notice and scheme accordingly.

BTPC pick: Raiders getting 7.

Bengals (-1) v. JAGS

We just traded Vincent Jackson for BenJarvis Green Ellis in our fantasy league.  We look forward to the LawFirm giving us an instant return on our investment.

BTPC pick: Bengals laying the 1

Saints (+7.5) v. PACK

Two explosive football teams, who we thought would be contenders, who have both disappointed.  Difference is, the Saints fall from grace has been their own doing (Bountygate costing them their head coach for this season), while the Packers got jobbed by a dude who couldn't qualify to ref Division I football.  Football gods set things right this weekend...

BTPC pick: Pack laying 7.5

Redskins (+2) v. BUCS

Really no feel on this one. We'll take the points.

BTPC pick: Skins getting two.

Giants (+2.5) v. EAGLES

Uh...lemme get this straight, the Giants are GETTING points on the road and you want to know who we're taking?  Seriously?

BTPC pick: Giants getting the points.

Bears (+3.5) v. COWBOYS

A Monday night bears game?  We can't wait to see the cutaways to Cutler chewing out someone on the sidelines and looking disgusted versus the cutaways to Jerry Jones looking up at his own horrendous plastic surgery job on his big HD screen.  We'll go with Jay getting the points...

BTPC pick: Bears getting 3.5

Week 3 record: 8-8 Upset Special: 1-0
Season to Date: 23-23-2 Upset Specials: 2-2
Career to Date: 409-384-31

Sunday, September 23, 2012

NFL Week 3: Well...we're just gonna have to use our brains.

DAMMIT! (Ned and Dusty's response to Lucky's observation that they're just gonna have to use their brains)

We've hit Week 3 of the NFL season and so far, we're perfect.  "Perfect" for us, is of course, dead even.  Last week we hit 7-7-2 and even split the two upset specials we picked.  We wonder just how many people lost $$ on the Ravens last week.  Seriously, Sugar Ray and company?  You get 2 points and you still lose OUTRIGHT to Michael Vick, the guy who threw so many picks to the Browns this week before we lost count?  Disgusting.

Oh well...on to the picks.

Giants (+2.5) v. PANTHERS

BPTC pick: we forgot to post this pick.  We'll count it as a loss, but for the record, we would've taken the Giants getting the 2.5.  Why?  Giants are a better team on the road than at home and Tom Coughlin just lost shit on Shiano.  You just new he'd have his team up.

BEARS (-7) v. Rams

A week after crapping the bed versus the Pack, the Bears are favored by a TD versus a feisty Rams team.  This line has dropped a half-point.  We like that because we're thinking Cutler and Company come out and put up some big numbers in the face of all the criticism this week.

BTPC pick: Bears laying 7.

COWBOYS (-8) v. Bucs

Either Seattle is a really, really, really tough place to play, the Giants really, really, really suck at home or the Cowboys are a fraud.  Well...we know the first two are accurate...

BTPC pick: Bucs getting 8.

VIKINGS (+7) v. 49ers

The 49ers are looking legit.  The Vikes just lost to a rookie QB.

BTPC pick: 49ers laying the 7.

TITANS (+3.5) v. Lions

No feeling on this game whatsoever.

BTPC pick: Lions laying 3.5.

REDSKINS (-3) v. Bengals

The RGIII era officially has Redskins Nation giddy.

BTPC pick:  Redskins laying the 3.

DOLPHINS (+2) v. Jets

Oh man...the FistPumper returns to Miami.  Is he gonna serve revenge up via unleashing TEBOW on the Phins?  Cue every analyst this morning talking about how Sparano was the genius behind the wildcat and that now he's got a chance to hurt the team that fire him.  The only problem with that narrative, is that it was Dolphins QB coach David Lee, who coached at Arkansas, who suggested the Wildcat.

No question Rex Ryan is gonna let Sparano break out some new wrinkles with Tebow.  Why?  Because Rex is an idiot who enjoys drama more than, you know, actually coaching championship football teams.

The JETS should absolutely win this game.  And if you think that, you should be jumping all over this line.  But we're HOMERS and we're taking our Dolphins.

BTPC pick:  Dolphins getting 2.

SAINTS (-8.5) v. Chiefs

This just in, the Saints...not that good.  This game will answer the age old questions, is it better to be coach by your interim, interim coach or by Romeo Crennel.  We'll take the interim, interim.  But not by 8.5...

BTPC pick: Chiefs getting 8.5.

BROWNS (+3) v. Bills

Mario Williams got $50m guaranteed from the Bills.  So far, he has 3 tackles and one pass defensed.  That's it.  We think it's about time Mario starts giving Ralph Wilson some return on that investment.

BTPC pick:  Bills laying the 3.

COLTS (-3) v. Jags

We'll take Andrew Luck over Blaine Gabbert.

BTPC pick:  Colts laying 3.

CARDS (+3) v. Eagles

We don't know what happened to the Ravens versus the Eagles, but the Eagles are not good.  The Cards just gave Tom Brady all he could handle and Michael Vick had trouble with the Browns.

BTPC pick:  UPSET SPECIAL: Cards getting the 3.

CHARGERS (-3) v. Falcons

The Falcons jumped all over the Broncos early.  Be interesting to see if they can pack up the gear, head out west and beat Rivers & Company.

BTPC pick:  Falcons getting the 3.

BRONCOS (+2) v. Texans

Uh...anyone who watched the first part of that game (who was able to watch the whole thing?!) can see Manning's arm is NOT what it used to be.

BTPC pick: Texans laying the 2.

RAIDERS (+3.5) v. Steelers

The Raiders were supposed to contend in the AFC West this year.  They just got housed by a rookie QB in Miami.  Big Ben ain't no rookie.

BTPC pick:  Steelers laying 3.5.

RAVENS (-2.5) v. Pats

No Hernandez.  But the Ravens just lost to Michael "All I Do Now That I Can't Fight Dogs Is Throw INTs" Vick.

BTPC pick:  Brady getting 2.5.

SEAHAWKS (+3) v. Packers

Rodgers shows Romo how it's done...

BTPC pick: Packers laying 3.

Week 2 record: 7-7-2
Season to Date:  15-15-2 Upset Specials: 1-2
Career to Date: 401-376-31

Thursday, September 13, 2012

NFL Week 2: Who does Number 2 work for?!

Week one of the 2012 NFL season is in the books and, shocker of all shockers, we went .500.  We've still got it!  Our slogan isn't "BTPC: Your Official Coin-Flip Prognosticator" for nothing.

It's always a bit tough to sort through week one results and make sense of them.  But, hey, that's why you pay such a premium for this service...huh...oh, it's free.  Forgot about that.  But slog through them we shall, bestowing upon you our Even Steven picks which you so richly deserve.  Week Two...Make it work for you...Enjoy!

Bears (+5.5) v. PACKERS

Man...are the Packers that bad or are the 49ers that good?  Not sure, the Pack did come back at the end. We're leaning towards the 49ers are that good right now.  The Pack can't afford to start out 0-2, can they?  Is this a "must win" already for them in week 2?  The Bears D is not San Fran's, but their offense is more explosive and it's certainly much better balanced than the Pack's.  We really, really don't want to bet against Aaron Rodgers at home after tough loss to start the season.  But 5.5 points is a lot.

BTPC pick: Bears getting the 5.5

BENGALS (-7) v. Browns

Two teams that did not look good last week.  The difference being, the Bengals played the Ravens who are pretty damn good, while the Browns played the Eagles who are not.

BTPC pick: BENGALS laying the 7.

Chiefs (+3) v. BILLS

Seems the CW on this would be to take the Chiefs.  But we think week one for the Bills was a bit of an aberration.  We don't think they're gonna be gangbusters, but we also don't think the Jets are that good. That game just got out of hand quickly and the Bills D just played horribly.  We're gonna give the Bills D at home one more chance before bailing on them.

BTPC pick:  BILLS laying the 3.

Vikings (-3) v. COLTS

The Vikings looked feisty last week.  The Colts got lost handedly to a team we just watched get manhandled on Thursday night.

BTPC pick: Vikings laying the 3.

DOLPHINS (+2.5) v. Raiders

Here's the deal with last week for the Dolphins.  They really did not look that terrible.  They were running the ball well and the D was playing the Texans tough.  Tannehill did not look RGIII special, but he also wasn't making terrible rookie mistakes.  Then, Thomas fumbled for the Dolphins and THill had the tipped balls.  Oakland is coming off a short week, traveling all the way to Miami, playing a 1 pm game in the Miami heat & humidity, in their black uniforms.  This game is totally set up for a Miami win...

BTPC pick: UPSET SPECIAL.  Dolphins getting the 2.5.

PATRIOTS (-13.5) v. Cardinals

Kevin Kolb will be back in a starting role for the Cardinals.  Let us repeat that: Kevin Kolb will be back in a starting role for the Cardinals.

BTPC pick:  PATRIOTS laying 13.5

Bucs (+7) v. GIANTS

Great stat from the Sportsguy: Dating back to the beginning of the 2006 season, the Giants are 32-17 on the road and 25-23 at home.  The Bucs look chippy.  The Giants play down at home.  7 points is a lot...

BTPC pick: Bucs getting 7.

PANTHERS (+2.5) v. Saints

We're gonna give the Saints one more week before we start questioning if the suspensions are gonna blow up the season as opposed to being a rallying cry.  We're gonna believe Drew Brees rallies the troops.

BTPC pick:  Saints laying 2.5

Ravens (+2) v. EAGLES

The Browns intercepted Michael Vick 4 times.  This just in...the Ravens are a much better Defense than Cleveland.  The fact that Vegas wants to give you two points on this one...well, that's like getting free money.  You like free money, don't you?

BTPC pick:  UPSET SPECIAL PART TWO! Ravens getting 2 (Hey...if they're gonna give you 2 pts, we're gonna call it an upset...)

JAGUARS (+7) v. Texans

Wonder what this line would be if Jacksonville actually had a home field...

BTPC pick: Texans laying 7.

RAMS (+3.5) v. Redskins

The Skins are basically running Baylor's offense.  Now that they've shown that hand, NFL defensive coordinators have tape on it.  RGIII is gonna be in a dome, it's gonna be loud and it's gonna be against a game Rams D.  If he pulls this off, he's really gonna start to look special...

BTPC pick:  RAMS getting 3.5.

SEAHAWKS (+3) v. Cowboys

Hawks at home are good.  Dallas shocked everyone in week one.  Romo returns to the scene of the crime (the botched hold) that still hangs over his head.  Hmmm...

BTPC pick:  Cowboys laying 3.

Jets (+5.5) v. STEELERS

We're not buying the Jets.  They hired Tony Sparano to be their offensive mastermind.  He's not one.

BTPC pick:  STEELERS laying 5.5

CHARGERS (-6.5) v. Titans

The Chargers were a long-snapper's FU away from losing.  That Titans D looked fired up against the Pats.  Even if Locker is out, Hasselbeck, when healthy, ain't chopped liver.

BTPC pick:  Titans getting 6.5

49ERS (-7) v. Lions

If didn't catch that Frank Deford piece on NPR the other day, here's a link to it.  What's it say?  Not much, just that in evening games, West Coast teams have won against the spread 70% of the time over the last 25 years.  You heard me, palooka. 70% of the time.  For a quarter century.  It's like we're giving you money here...

BTPC pick:  49ers laying the 7.

FALCONS (-3) v. Broncos

Are the Falcons for real or is Peyton really, really back.  When in doubt, go with the QB who hasn't had 4 neck surgeries in the last year...

BTPC pick:  FALCONS laying 3.

Season to Date:  8-8-0 Upset Specials: 0-1
Career to Date: 394-369-29

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

NFL. 2012. GET. IT. ON...

Guess who's back...Back again...The BTPC's NFL picks are back...Tell a friend...

Slim Shady may have sang those lyrics, but they apply today to the return of our old friend, the National Football League.  And with that return comes the return of your favorite NFL prognostication device: the BTPC picks column.  That's right...where else can you go to get NFL game predictions that are, statistically speaking, at best the same as flipping a coin.  Probably lots of places.  But you're not there, you're here.  Therefore, we shall give you what you want...

Dallas v. NY GIANTS (-3.5)
One game to start it off tonight.  The Cowboys go to Gotham.  How lucky are the Giants?  They win the Super Bowl, yet every single bit of attention is focused on the Jets thanks to Rex Ryan and Tim Tebow. Tom Coughlin is living right, people.

Meanwhile, Dallas hasn't been able to put a healthy team on the field once this preseason.  Laurent Robinson is gone, Dez Bryant has to BYOSS (Bring Your Own Security Squad), Miles Austin has been hobbled and Tony Romo's security blanket Jason Whitten has a lacerated spleen that has kept him from doing anything.  Add on top of that the fact that the one thing the Giants do very, very well is rush the passer and the Cowboys have lost so many Centers, they traded for one for the Miami Dolphins.  So in summary, Dallas is looking at having issues with hiking the ball, protecting Romo and catching the ball.  That's enough to make one start to worry.

Factor in that the Giants owned the Cowboys last year, winning both games, one being the pivotal season closer that sparked the Giants Super Bowl run and that worry becomes dread.

Then...mix in the fact that Jerrah "Does My Face Look Too Tight" Jones has been talking smack about beating the Giants all off-season and that dread should become sheer panic.

We think the Giants use tonight to serve notice to the rest of the league.

BTPC pick: Giants laying the 3.5

Colts (+10) v. BEARS
Andrew Luck, Julius Peppers.  Julius Peppers, Andrew Luck.  Oh...did we mention Brandon Marshall is back with the only QB he's ever really loved?  Or that he has a doppleganger on the other side of the formation in Alshon Jeffery.  Jeffery is like Marshall with out the personality disorder.

BTPC pick: Bears laying the 10.

VIKINGS (-4) v. Jaguars
Hey, Blaine Gabbert, look on the bright will be so loud in the dome, no one will hear how bad you are sucking...

BTPC pick: Vikings laying the 4.

JETS (-3) v. Bills
The Jets decided to bring in a QB who can't throw, but who brings instant controversy to pair with a QB who has failed to live up to expectations.  And they brought in Tony Sparano to be the offensive mastermind who will unleash these two crackens.  As a Miami Dolphins fan, let me give you Jets fans some insider scoop on Sparano: he hasn't been holding anything back.  This is how bad his offense is.  Enjoy...

BTPC pick: UPSET SPECIAL: Bills getting 3

TEXANS (-12) v. Dolphins
As a Dolfan, we're just hoping this team looks better at the end of the year from what they do today (which we predict will be "like shit").

BTPC pick: Texans laying 12

Rams (+7.5) v. LIONS
Jeff Fisher's mustache has gone to St. Louis.  The Lions have a wealth of offensive weapons. Unfortunately none of them can run the ball.

BTPC pick: Rams getting 7.5

PATRIOTS (-6) v. Titans
We went heavy on Patriots on our Fantasy team this year. Brady, Gronk and Lloyd.  That probably does not bode well for them...

BTPC pick: Patriots laying 6.

SAINTS (-7) v. Redskins
Gonna be loud for this game, as Saints fans give one long, loud and enthusiastic F*ck You to Roger Goodell.

BTPC pick: Saints laying 7.

Eagles (-9.5) v. BROWNS
This is how bad things go for the Browns: they use their first round pick on a RB, who has already undergone two "procedures" before week 1 of the season.  Then their best defensive player, CB Joe Haden gets suspended for 4 games. Did I mention their rookie QB is 53-years old?  It's never a great thing with the best thing to happen to your franchise in weeks is the former owner dying...

BTPC pick: Eagles laying 9.5

Falcons (-2.5) v. CHIEFS
Here's how sad things are for the Chiefs: they actually decided Romeo Crennel would be a good choice as HC, you know...because that stint with the Cleveland Browns went so well...

BTPC pick: Falcons laying 2.5.

Seahawks (-3) v. CARDINALS
The Russell Wilson era begins.  Meanwhile, the Cards at least have Kevin Kolb and his contract.  So there's that...

BTPC pick: Seahawks laying 3.

BUCS (+2.5) v. Panthers
Josh Freeman was the poor man's Cam Newton before Cam Newton.  That Martin kid is gonna be a heckuva RB.

BTPC pick: Bucs getting 2.5

PACKERS (-5) v. Niners
Rodgers was praising Alex Smith this week.  It's almost as if he's been watching tape on Smith and feels really sorry for how bad he is.

BTPC pick: Pack laying 5.

BRONCOS (+2) v. Steelers
We're not willing to bet against Peyton Manning, even if he hasn't played in a real NFL game in over a year and has, in the interim, had 4 neck surgeries.

BTPC pick: Broncos getting 2.

RAVENS (-6.5) v. Bengals
Sure would be funny if all this Ravens buzz ran into a Bengal buzzsaw and faltered.  True story, Ray Lewis is 113-years old.  Ed Reed's body is 4-years older...

BTPC pick: Bengals getting 6.5.

RAIDERS (-1) v. Chargers
The "Hey...I'm not dead yet" game for two NFL QBs.  We'll take the one we'd rather have.

BTPC pick: Chargers getting 1.

Season to date: 0-0-0
2011 Record: 120-117-11
Career to Date: 386-361-29