Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Week 6 picks: Playing the hot hand...

In case you didn't notice, we enter week 6 of the NFL season an quite the roll. We went 10-2-1 last week. How are we, lifetime .500 prognosticators, doing it? Who knows...when you're in Vegas and you get on a streak, you don't question where the cards are coming from. You just play 'em. Having said that, let's ante up and see the cards...

PACKERS -14 v. Rams
Rodgers is playing out of his mind. It's not just that he's throwing completions, racking up yards and scores. You really have to watch how those passes look to enjoy just how on fire he is. His passes are BBs. They just look different than the passes every other QB is throwing. They're frickin' Laser Beams. Dr. Evil wants to mount Aaron Rodgers on the head of shark, that's how awesome his throws are. The 14 points scares us, since it is high...but given how well GB is playing versus how poorly the Rams are playing, who wants to pick the Rams here? Anyone? Bueller?

BTPC pick = Pack laying the 14.

STEELERS -12.5 v. Jags
We said last week we were giving the Steelers one more chance. And look what they did with it...throttling the Titans, who had been playing well and looking like a decent team (two things the Jags have not done). See how romantic Big Ben is? We can't quit him...

BTPC pick = Steelers laying the 12.5

Eagles -3 v. SKINS
If you're asking yourself how the hell the the team at the bottom of the division at 1-4 can be a 3 point favorite versus the team at the top of the division at 3-1, we have no idea. Suppose it's because if the Skins win this one, the Eagles are done and Vegas is figuring this Eagles team is too good to get knocked out this early. Or maybe they remember how Vick destroyed the Skins last year. Or maybe they remember how the visitor has dominated this series winning 8 of the last 9. We want to take the Skins here, but we're gonna go with Vegas...because afterall...those SOBs make millions off of this shit.

BTPC pick = Eagles laying 3.

LIONS -4 v. 49ers
Last week we asked the question of whether or not the Niners were real. We picked them over the Bucs saying we thought Harbaugh was. And Harbaugh and his scrappy team proved us right. We still think the Niners are a good team (and lament the fact that Harbaugh turned down the Dolphins gig), but we just don't see an Alex Smith team going in to Detroit and keeping pace with that offense.

BTPC pick = Lions laying the 4.

FALCONS -3.5 v. Panthers
Have you tried the Cam yet? You really should try the Cam. It's wonderful (and seems to always cover). By the way...he's pretty damn good in the Georgia Dome. (Trust us...unfortunately we've seen it first hand).

BTPC pick = Panthers getting the 3.5

BENGALS -6.5 v. Colts
Tough call here. We've enjoyed taking the Bengals this season, as they're a better team than most realize. But they don't win games big. On the other hand, the Colts have shown some life with Curtis Painter finally getting under center, but news broke this week that Irsay and the Colts may be looking to unload their two best players (who are playing) in Wayne and Mathis. We'd feel a lot better if the spread was less, but we're gonna roll with the Red Rifle, Andy Dalton.

BTPC pick = Bengals laying the 6.5

GIANTS -3 v. Bills
Before the season, if we had told you that the best team in the state of New York was gonna be the Bills, what would have been your choice for which drug we were on? And now you're telling us Vegas wants to give you 3 points for them to go up against Eli "I pull wins outta my ass by my WRs making ridiculous catches" Manning's Giants? Okay...we don't want the points, we don't need the points, but we'll take the points.

BTPC pick = UPSET SPECIAL...Bills getting 3.

RAVENS -7 v. Texans
The Texans lost to the Raiders last week. At home. After blowing a chance to win it. This week, they travel to Baltimore. Baltimore is better than Oakland. Teams don't run against Baltimore. Without Andre Johnson, the Texans have to run to win. See how easy it is when you break it down.

BTPC pick = Ravens laying the 7.

RAIDERS -6.5 v. Browns
The biggest news outta Cleveland, is still the who Peyton Hillis Strep Throat controversy. Meanwhile, men are so happy in Oakland about being free from the iron rule of Al Davis' corpse, that they're crying on the sideline and in the locker room.

BTPC pick = Raiders laying the 6.5

PATS -6.5 v. Cowboys
The Pats have no pass rush and can't defend the pass. Chad Henne lit them up when they played the Dolphins. The Cowboys offense can move the ball through the air and they're getting Miles back this week. Plus, you can almost taste Romo having the chance to lead the Boys down for a late win, blowing it, then Brady taking over and leading the Pats down to just eke out the win, leading to a week's worth of Dallas fans and the media comparing Romo's choke to Brady's awesomeness. Sports radio show directors can practically take next week off.

BTPC pick = Cowboys getting the 6.5

Saints -5.5 v. BUCS
We were tempted to take the Bucs with this line, thinking the young Bucs will come home pissed at laying the egg in San Fran and give a Saint's team that had to fight for their life against Cam and the Panthers all they can handle. Then we saw where the Bucs starting RB is gonna be out. Awww...what the hell, we're taking the Bucs on the theory that 5.5 is just too high for a team that is very similar to the team that just covered that much last week versus the Saints.

BTPC pick = Bucs getting the 5.5

BEARS -2.5 v. Vikings
The Vikes should win this game, but we don't feel good about taking them. They got their win last week...it's time for them to go back to blowing leads. However, the Bears line seems to be on a mission to get Cutler killed. Jared Allen is gonna have a big day.

BTPC pick = Vikes taking the 2.5

JETS -6.5 v. Dolphins
The Phins go in to this game with Matt Moore at QB. Moore is a pretty mobile guy and we think that may help him against the Jets relentless pass rush. We're not sure what to make outta Brandon Marshall's vow to get thrown out. The Jets are reeling and they've got to consider this a huge game. Then again, for a Dolphins team that is not going anywhere, beating the Jets is one of those season saving types of wins, as in..."Yeah...we went 2-14, but we swept the Jets" kind of ways. We hate to pick against our Dolphins, no matter how terrible they are. And this pick is in no way meant to be a reverse jinx. Honest.

BTPC pick = Jets laying the 6.5

Last Week: 10-2-1 Upset Specials: 1-0
2011 Season Record: 45-29-3 Upset Special: 4-2
Career to date: 311-269-21

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