Monday, July 16, 2012

115 Days Out...

Election Day is Tuesday, November 6, 2012. That puts us 115 days out from the election as of today. If you've been paying attention lately, the Presidential race is heating up. President Obama has been beating Romney over the head with the Bain stuff, which gauged by the protestations coming from Romney's camp, certainly seem to be working. In fact, the Bain stuff is definitely working, as all you heard about this week was Bain and not the flat unemployment numbers that just came out. Well played, Team Obama.

Moving forward, we feel the need to remind our Republican friends here in SC of a bit of reality. in SC, it is easy for Republican-minded folks to get caught in an echo chamber. Hell, everyone they know hates Obama, so they assume their guy is headed for a cake walk in 115 days. They're wrong. The reality of the Electoral Map is pretty daunting for the Mittster. Now...we are always wary of putting too much stock in polls and there are any number of pitfalls between here and November 6 that could dramatically change the electoral landscape, but...the snapshot 115 days out looks pretty damn good for the President's re-election. 

Take a look at RealClearPolitics "Battle For White House" polling feature and the row Romney has to hoe becomes clearer.  Right now, they have Obama sitting at 221 electoral votes to Romney's 181, with 136 votes they label as "Toss Ups." Take some time to look at the polling numbers for the toss-up states. Looks pretty good for the President. (Tip: it takes 270 to win).

Personally, we see this race as a flip of 2004. Sure, the Right may hate President Obama as much as the left hated W, but John Kerry oozed charisma compared to Mitt. His campaign is like the gang that couldn't shoot straight, from their stumbling all over the SCOTUS decision, to their inability to be ready for the Bain hits, to now whining in response. It's all just weak. Add in the fact that, personally, we are seeing signs of an improved economy everyday and we think that adds up to re-election. Of course, we shall see. But 115 days out, that's our opinion. Let's see what happens in the home stretch.

BTW, Team Obama has dropped what we think is the most devastating ad we've ever seen in a long time. We're talking "Bear in the Woods" effective.

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