Sunday, February 6, 2011

BTPC picks Super Bowl XLV

It's that time: SuperBowl Sunday. Time to...Get. It. On. After picking the conference championship round a perfect 2-0, can the 'Pine keep it up and close out the NFL season with a 3-0 run?

Steelers (+3) v. PACKERS

The line opened with the Pack laying 2 and has now moved to them laying 3. It would appear the public is jumping on the Pack as Vegas is obviously trying to push money towards the Steelers. The over/under is 45.

Or course, the fun part of the Super Bowl is the crazy ass prop bets one could make if gambling were legal. Since it is not in most of the country, we'll just have to look with envy on all those living in Las Vegas and offshore who can bet on stuff like:

-Will Christina Aguilera's anthem be over (-200) or under (+160) 1 minute 54 seconds? BTPC says go with the over. Christina has let herself go, gotten divorced and needs to make a statement.

-First missed FG: Wide left (-120), wide right (+110) or short/blocked (+1000). BTPC says go right simply for the better odds.

-We like the score in the first 4 minutes 30 seconds of the 1st for (+205) prop.

-How about a safety for either team being the first score being (+5000)?

Anyway, click on that link to see all kinds of crazy props.

So who do we like? It's hard not to see the universal balancing effect of Aaron Rodgers getting the win. First, it would be the football gods rewarding the "good" QB once again. Good has already triumphed over evil so far as Rodgers has, in the past several weeks, defeated Brett Favre (alleged masseuse sexual harrasser and unsolicited naked photo sender) and Michael Vick (former owner and user of a "dog-rape-stand). It seems only natural that he would take down Bathroom blocker and junk-exposer Ben Roethlisberger. Plus, it's hard not to pull for Rodgers after the whole Favre drama. Personally, we'd just love to see Rodgers win it to twist the knife just a tad more in Favre's season-of-demise.

Big Ben has played remarkable and has singlehandedly carried the Steelers this far. But Dom "Helmet Hair" Capers will have the Pack schemed up. And while the Packers have had an unbelievable amount of starters go down to injury, most of their injuries happened early on and the team they come into the game with is the team they've had for most of the season. The same can't be said of Pittsburgh. Their best defensive player is not healthy. Troy Polamalu is not the same player he has been in the past. Green Bay's havoc maker, Clay Matthews, is healthy. That along with the Pouncey injury is gonna make a big difference between the effectiveness of the defenses.

We heard an interview with Trent Dilfer this week (the Sportsguy's podcast) where Dilfer had a good point. He looks for the team with the harder edge. And we think Rodgers and the Pack want this more than the Steelers, who already have two, do.

BTPC pick = Pack laying the 3.

Last Week, Conference Championship Round of Playoffs: 2-0
2010 Playoff Record: 6-4 Upset Special: 2-0
Season to Date (including playoffs): 139-128-9
2010 Regular Season to date: 133-124-9 Upset specials 11-2-1
Career to date: 265-240-17

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