Well...after buying Rex Ryan's hype, we're starting the week out in a 0-1 hole (we tweeted our pick of Jets laying 6 Thursday night). Thanks...Rexy. Who knew the greatest defensive mind of our lifetime would not be able to stop a one-dimensional QB? Of course, that quarterback has been ordained by God...so we guess we ought to take that in to account.
Let's move on and see if we can get back in the black on the ledger after yet another even Steven (8-8) week.
Titans (+6) v. FALCONS
Last week the Titans manhandled the Panthers, while the Falcons blew a game in OT to the Saints. There's been a lot of talk about how the Falcons decision to go for it on 4th & inches from deep in their own territory in OT. A lot of folks are comparing Mike Smith's decision to Bill Belicheck's decision to go for it a few years ago on 4th down versus the Colts. The problem with that comparison, is that the Pats decision was to win the game. If NE got a first down, they could have run out the clock and won. The Saints decision was simply to get 3 more downs. The reward was not worth the risk.
However, the fact Mike Smith decided to do that speaks volumes about how bad the Falcons' defense is. We think they'll win a must win at home, but we think 6 points is too much, especially when you factor in that it looks like Atlanta will not be playing with the player (Julio Jones) they neglected their defense and traded all those draft picks to select.
BTPC pick = Titans getting the 6.
RAVENS (-7) v. Bengals
Yes...Ray Lewis will be out. So, we believe, will be the Bengals top CB, Leon Hall. So while those two may cancel out, the Bengals are definitely gonna be hurting missing star rookie WR AJ Green.
Last week, we took the Seahawks because we saw the Ravens turning in a turd after beating the Steelers, just like they did in week 2. This week, we think they'll respond like they did in week 3, with a convincing win. If the Bengals were healthy, we'd like their chances to cover...but when Pacman Jones is gonna be your top CB, we have to take the Unibrow.
BTPC pick = Ravens laying the 7.
Jaguars (-1) v. BROWNS
In a game between two complete shit teams, we suppose we'll go with the team that doesn't seem to be coming apart in the locker room. (see Hillis, Peyton).
BTPC pick = Jaguars laying the 1.
DOLPHINS (-1.5) v. Bills
This game has Dolphins Turd written all over it. Sure...they'll be helped if Bills WR Stevie Johnson can't go. These are two teams that are completely opposite. The Bills started out red hot and have cooled off. Miami didn't even get it's first win until 2 weeks ago. Now, after screwing up the chance at the #1 pick and Andrew Luck, the Dolphins might be entering the let's miss out on Matt Barkley sweepstakes.
Despite good play out of him the last two weeks, we don't think Matt Moore is that good. We certainly think Ryan Fitzpatrick is better. We'll go with the better QB in this one.
BTPC pick = Bills getting 1.5
PACKERS (-14) v. Bucs
Let's just go ahead and pick the Pack and move on, shall we?
BTPC pick = Pack laying 14.
VIKINGS (+1) v. Raiders
Carson Palmer on the road in a dome just weeks after coming out of retirement.
BTPC pick = Vikings getting 1.
Panthers (+7) v. LIONS
Somehow, we get the feeling that Cam Newton will show up against a shit-talking Detroit Lions team. If not...we may have to bail off the Cam Newton bandwagon.
BTPC pick = Panthers getting 7.
Seahawks (+3) v. RAMS
BTPC pick = This Rams team is a different team with Brandon Lloyd. And this Seahawks team is a different team away from home.
BTPC pick - Rams laying the 3.
Cowboys (-7) v. SKINS
The Cowboys and Tony Romo appear to finally be hitting on all cylinders. The Skins are falling apart.
BTPC pick = Cowboys laying 7.
BEARS (-3.5) v. Chargers
San Diego is imploding and this is Norv Turner's farewell tour.
BTPC pick = Bears laying 3.5.
49ERS (-9.5) v. Cardinals
The Cards went on the road and beat the Dream Team last week. But this 49ers team ain't a dream team...they're a blue-collar, well-coached squad. 9.5 is a lot of points though. Still, we just think the Niners are that much stronger.
BTPC pick = Niners laying the 9.5
GIANTS (-6) v. Eagles
Absolute must win for Eagles. That's great, but Vince Young is starting. Seems like the Giants have a pattern of looking good-looking bad-looking good-looking bad. Last week they lost to the Niners. This week...
BTPC pick = Giants laying 6.
PATS (-15) v. Chiefs
Some guy named Palko is starting at QB for the Chiefs.
BTPC pick = Pats laying the 15.
Last Week: 8-8 Upset Specials: 1-0
2011 Season Record: 80-61-5 Upset Special: 7-3-1
Career to date: 346-305-23