Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Week 17 picks: The Herm Edwards Corollary

We've reached the final week of the NFL Regular season. The last two weeks of the regular season are always two of the toughest weeks of the year to pick. Why? Because of the Herm Edwards Corollary. What's that you say? You don't know the Herm Edwards Corollary? It's simple. Teams play to win the games. Except in the last two weeks. Then, some teams approach the games as painful exercises in attrition, which they hope to survive without losing any players.

The best example of this, is all the hubbaballu we've heard since Indianapolis Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell pulled Peyton Manning last week in the 3rd quarter, with his team up by one point versus the Jets. As you know, the Colts promptly turned the ball over and lost to the Jets. The rest of us have been subjected to a week full of pretentious pundits and radio hosts telling us that Colts fans who are upset with Caldwell's decision are idiots and that the only thing that matters is winning the Super Bowl.

We agree that it don't mean a thing if you don't get that ring. But the thing is, who the hell knows how to protect a player from injury? I assume the Colts practiced all this week. Hell...what guarantee was there that Manning wouldn't blow out his knee in practice? Or in the first quarter last week? Or on the first snap this week? There isn't. So it's ridiculous to act like pulling him was a surefire way to guarantee he'd stay healthy throughout the rest of a Super Bowl run.

But even worse for the Colts now, Caldwell has now angered the football gods. And not just them, but he's angered his own QB. You don't think Peyton Manning wanted a shot at doing what the Pats and Brady couldn't? He already has a ring...he wanted a shot at history. At football immortality. And Caldwell cost him that. Mark my words: that decision last week cost the Colts a championship. They will not win now.

Having gotten that off our chests...on to the picks.

BILLS (+3) over Colts

BROWNS (-1) over Jaguars

Bears (-3) over LIONS

Falcons (-2.5) over BUCS

RAMS (+7) over Niners

DOLPHINS (+3) over Steelers

Giants (+9) over VIKINGS

PANTHERS (-3) over Saints

TEXANS (-8) over Patriots

Packers (+3.5) over CARDINALS.

Redskins (+4) over CHARGERS

SEAHAWKS (+4.5) over Titans

RAIDERS (+10.5) over Ravens

Eagles (+3) over COWBOYS

Chiefs (+13) over BRONCOS

Bengals (+10) over JETS

Last Week: 5-8-1 Upset specials 0-0-1
Season to date: 113-110-7 Upset Specials 7-9-2

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