Thursday, September 8, 2011

BTPC picks…as good as a coin flip, guaranteed.

Don’t call it a comeback…tonight marks the kickoff of the 2011 NFL season and the BTPC could not be happier. That means it’s time for us to reconvene our prognostication panel and get back to making our “Guaranteed 50% Accurate” picks. Seriously…we’re like clock-work. Last year’s record came in at a 50.54% rate for the season, 63.63% for the playoffs. What can we say, we step it up when the games mean more. Our career prognostication efforts on this blog come in at a whopping 50.86%...suck on that Vegas. All this explains how we came up with our slogan “BTPC picks…as good as a coin flip, guaranteed.”

Saints v. PACKERS (-4)

Tonight’s Kickoff game features the Saints traveling up to Wisconsin to help the Packers celebrate adding yet another championship to Title Town. With Peyton Manning looking like he might not play this season (or perhaps ever again), this game features, arguably, 2 of the top 3 quarterbacks in the league right now if you figure Rodgers and Brees fall behind Brady. Personally, we’d put the top-5 right now as Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, Brees and have a tie for 5 with Romo & Vick. Vick’s numbers last season were sick, but he has to replicate that performance before we truly buy that he should be higher.

Having said that, it’s obvious that Drew Brees and his teammates took their poor performance last season personally. The Saints players were some of the most organized about setting up their own private team workouts during the lockout. In fact, we read a report that claimed Brees and some of the other vets actually secured insurance for the rookies, so they could come work out with the team and have peace of mind should an injury occur. That’s pretty damn impressive. You can’t help but think that kind of leadership and dedication is going to have the Saints ready to play tonight.

We are really torn about this pick. We loved the Pack in last year’s playoffs. When you look at what this Packers team did last season with a slew of injuries, it’s hard not to believe they’re going to be significantly better with a healthy team. However, the line actually opened at 5.5 and has now dropped 1.5 points. That’s a pretty big drop, which would seem to indicate smart money was jumping all over the Saints and Vegas has been dropping the spread to try to even out their risk. While that’s pretty important, does it really mean that much in the opening game of the season? In other words, who really knows how good either of these teams are before they strap it on and kick it off?

We like the Pack to win outright. We like the Saints with the opening line of getting 5.5. But the question is do we like them only getting 4? What the hell…

BTPC pick: Saints getting 4.

Last Pick, Super Bowl XLV: 1-0
2010 Playoff Record: 7-4 Upset Special: 2-0
2010 Season Record (including playoffs): 140-128-9
Career to date: 266-240-17

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