Sunday, November 1, 2009

Week 8 picks: Almost there...

With Week 7 in the books and now on Week 8, we are almost on the back side of the season. We've got to head out of town today, so without further ado, let's jump on in to the picks.

Broncos (+3.5) v. RAVENS = Not sure what to think here. The Broncos are riding high with a 6-0 record. The Ravens started hot, going 3-0, only to lose their last 3 games and sit at .500. They are tough to beat at home and do get LT Jared Gaither back this week (a major plus with Elvis entering the building). It's gonn be a cold, wet game with a little win, conditions both QBs are used to playing in. You know both teams are used to playing in nasty, cold weather. So will it have an effect? I think yes. It will have an effect on the OLD Ravens. I think the line shows the Ravens are living a little too much on reputation.

BTPC pick = Broncos taking the points.

BILLS (+3.5) v. Texans = If you can say anything about the Texans is that they are a roller coaster of a team. Last week, they surprised a lot of folks by handling the Niners. They played a wonderful game, which means this is the week they turn into a pumpkin. The cold weather doesn't exactly help when you consider Schaub and Andre Johnson's bruised lung.

BTPC pick = Bills taking the points.

Browns v. BEARS (-13) = While I have a hard time seeing the Bears team I saw last week beating anyone by 13, I have an even harder time taking the Browns on anything. With that strongly felt conviction, I suppose I'll take the Bears.

BTPC pick = Bears laying the points.

Dolphins (+3) v. JETS = Oh man...can the Jets and their coach talk trash. Bart Squat (as in I have not done squat this year) and his Coach Rex Ryan have managed to bring their Ravens swagger to a team which makes that swagger look more and more like a staggering drunk. They continue to talk trash despite the fact that Miami manhandled them last time. And take note of this: the Wildcat is not a gimmick. It's simply a formation. They aren't even stacking an uneven line this season, they are simply lining up, putting helmet on helmet and opening holes.

How about this pic, huh? Think the refs blew this call in the Saints-Miami game last week? If the refs call that right, the Saints have 7 points off the board and Miami has the ball on its on 20-yard line thanks to a touchback since the ball fumbled out of the endzone. While it's impossible to say the correct call results in a win, it does reinforce one thing: this Miami team is good. They are obviously a year a way. But they have played, arguably, the two best teams in the league (Saints and Colts) to the wire. And those are two of the most explosive offenses in the league. So please...enough already with the talk about this Miami team not being up to the 21st century offensive challenge. They can and have put up points. But they can also play tough D and wear you down with long rushing drives.

What about the Jets? Their golden-boy QB took even more heat this week for eating a hotdog on the sidelines. Oh...and by the way, he's returning to the inhospitable confines of the Meadowlands, where the forecast is cold, windy and possibly wet. Who do you think is the QB more used to those conditions? The Southern Cal fella or the guy who started 4 years in Ann Arbor?

Both teams have some big injuries. Miami lost CB Will Allen and Channing Crowder may not play. The Jets have lost NT Kris Jenkins and Rb-returner Leon Washington. While I think the Allen loss may be negated by the weather. Crowder's loss will hurt Miami against a strong Jets rushing attack. But the Jenkins and Washington losses are bigger.

Finally, I can't recall ever seeing a Coach paint himself into a corner with a game the way Ryan has on this. While that could be good for the Jets, I think it may make him desperate, leading to some bad calls. I think Miami knows this and will capitalize on it.

I don't want the points. I don't need the points, but I'll take the points.

BTPC pick = Miami taking the points.

COLTS (-12.5) v. Niners = I ain't betting Alex Smith over Peyton Manning. No way.

BTPC pick = Colts laying the points.

COWBOYS (-9.5) v. Seahawks = I don't think the Cowboys can beat Seattle by that many, no matter how many injuries the Seahawks have. The Cowboys give up a lot of passing yards and Julius Jones may actually show up to get revenge on Jerruh.

BTPC pick = 'Hawks taking the points.

LIONS (-3.5) v. Rams = Stafford is back. Rams suck. They're second best player is the white return guy who got cut by the Cowboys during last years Hard knocks.

BTPC pick = Lions laying the points.

Giants (-1) v. EAGLES = It's gonna be rainy, cold and windy in Philly. Giants fans can't like that forecast with Eli "the noodle" Manning as their QB. NY has two things going for them. 1) No one wants to beat that the Giants lose 3 in a row. Tom Coughlin is too good a coach and the Giants too good of a team for that to happen. 2) Revenge. Philly knocked the Gmen out of the playoffs last year, intercepting little brother twice. The Sportsguy says all the Philly fans at his book signing were way overconfident. That can't be good given the above. This is a tough one.

BTPC pick = Giants laying the point.

CHARGERS (-16.5) v. Oakland = Have mercy on Norv Turner if he loses this game.

BTPC pick = Chargers laying the points.

Jags (+3) v. TITANS = Really...the 0-6 Titans are giving points? Wow. I guess Vegas believes in Vince "Patron" Young. So do I.

BTPC pick = Titans laying the the points.

Cardinals (-10) v. PANTHERS = Is Arizona for real? I know Jake Delhomme is not. But 10 points is a lot.

BTPC pick = Panthers taking the points.

SAINTS (-11) v. Falcons = After that Miami game, I think Drew Brees has got these guys believing they are a team of destiny. Meanwhile, is the bloom off the rose in Hotlanta? Matt Ryan has been taking some heat lately for his poor play. This Falcons team is more versatile than last years squad that played NO tight. 11 points is just too much to pass up here.

BTPC pick = Falcons taking the points.

Vikings (+3) v. PACK = As much as I'd like to see the Pack destroy HIM when he comes back, I don't know if it will happen. HIM does get a bit of a break, as while it's gonna be a brisk mid-30s kind of day, it will be sunny and not that windy. I just think it will be close.

BTPC pick = Vikes taking the points.

Last week = 7-5-1 Upset special: 0-1
Season to Date: 59-39-3 Upset Specials = 3-5.

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