Monday, November 3, 2008

BTPC predicts the races

Alright...I went up in the attic and pulled the old crystal ball out, so let's see whether or not I've still got the touch the gypsies at Greenwood Baseball Park blessed me with as a young firstbaseman. Once again, remember, there's a money-back guarantee...and I like my crow marinated in Italian dressing.

President: Obama is going to win and it is going to be big. So now that we've got that out of the way, let me address my people. I'm talking about the country-folk. The rednecks. Obama does not mean the end of the world. It will be a good thing for this country, no matter what, based on two things an Obama victory means. First, it is a huge deal for race in this country. There will still be racism and there will still be racists. But the significance of a person who not that long ago would have been considered 3/5ths of a person assuming the highest office in our land means something. Second, an Obama victory will go a long way to repairing our reputation around the world. If you don't believe that means something, then you are ignorant of just how BIG a "war on terror" is. We can't win it alone. We need help. For these reasons alone, an Obama victory is a good thing.

US Senate: Graham wins. I voted for Graham. Trust me, Conley is not a Democrat. Hell...Conley is not even a good crappy Republican, he's just an opportunist trying to ride Obama's coattails. The only reason he is even on the ballot, is because the state Democratic party and the trial lawyers have no sack. Democrats really missed a shot this year to pick off this seat. Seriously, if they had gotten off their asses and talked Judge Sanders into running again, this race would not be close.

US House Seat 6: Clyburn. The Whip ain't goin' nowhere.

State Senate 31: Leatherman barely nudges out Mr. Unopposed. Although I have it on good authority that there was a strong write-in campaign (a local attorney and his family decided to write him in, in protest). What do I know...I'm still waiting for the "things will be different now" that my Senator promised me last election.

SC House 60: Zach Cooper. Our first surprise? Cooper spoke this morning at the Breakfast Club and released some polling numbers. Sumter will be strong for him. But if the numbers he was giving for Florence hold up, it ain't gonna be close.

SC House 63: Crawford. Wingard is a good guy, has an impressive resume and I would like to see him win. Unfortunately, he's in a district that George W. could probably carry this election, so I think the numbers will do him in.

Sheriff: Gregg. This one is really going to be close, but I think the Obama effect will nudge Jimmy over Kenny Boone. I think Gregg will pull about 90% of the black vote and that turnout is going to the historic. If he can pull about a third of the white vote, I think that will be enough. Hell...a third of that vote could simply be Jimmy's family. I see Kenny doing well from Cherokee over through West Florence, with Jimmy carrying North and South. In all candor, I think the traffic unit is a big deal in this race. I don't care what Boone says the reason is for running radar, it has very little to do with safety and everything to do with getting in the cars. (Let's just put it this way, when Reino releases his next round of Boone facts, I recommend: Kenny Boone doesn't need "probable cause," he just tells the court "because"). And whether he admits it or not, having all those guys running radar on I20 and I95 is costing him coverage out in the sticks, which is going to cost him out in the Bluff and other places. There is a lot of heated passion out there in this race and I just hope those feelings die once the ballots are counted. I know people on both sides and the county could use all of them.

Treasurer: No idea. I really thought Williams would just slide in on Obama's coattails, a sentiment Lavell must have been thinking as far as I can tell. But that article that came out last Sunday in the FMN was untimely to say the least. In fact, if you looked up hatchet job in the encyclopedia, I think you would find that article. I really have no complaints with the job Fowler has done. I think that article probably sealed Williams fate and Fowler stays.

County Council 4: Mitchell Kirby. If you build it, they will vote.

City Council: Williams-Blake and Powers. I think the numbers and the Obama effect put both of the Dems on the Council. I would prefer Glynn Willis take the seat alongside Octavia, but I'm afraid that ain't happening. That's a shame. Glynn is a good guy who worked his tail off. He has a very nice family too.

Mayor: Stephen Wukela. Shocker, right. In all seriousness, Wukela deserves to win. Every city issue that has been discussed this election cycle has been brought to the table by Wukela. If he does not win, he can enjoy his evening knowing he made the folks who dusted the mothballs off a Rocky spend a shit load of money to keep him out of the Complex. Seriously...anyone want to take a guess on what they've spent on that campaign? When Wukela ran against Leatherman 4 years ago, it was the most expensive state race in South Carolina. Hugh spent $750k to stave off a relatively unknown first-timer. Let's face it, Wukela is basically running against those same interests this time.

No matter what happens tomorrow, it has been one hell of wild ride. But I'll be glad when its over.

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